Market Update - March 3, 2026

Subject: Perspective on the Middle East Conflict & Your Portfolio

You’ve likely seen the recent headlines regarding military escalation in the Middle East. Whenever geopolitical tensions rise, markets respond quickly, and often emotionally. We want to provide context and reinforce what this means for you.

What’s Happening

The primary market concern centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway off Iran’s coast through which roughly 20% of the world’s daily oil supply flows. Any prolonged disruption there could push energy prices higher, potentially increasing inflationary pressure and creating short-term market volatility. 1

That said, it’s important to zoom out.

• OPEC+ has announced it is prepared to increase production by 206,000 barrels per day beginning in April.

• The International Energy Agency is already projecting global oil production growth of 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026.

• Gulf producers collectively hold an estimated 3.5 million barrels per day in spare capacity that can be deployed relatively quickly if needed.

In other words: while uncertainty has increased, the global supply backdrop remains relatively strong. 2,3,4

What This Means for You

Volatility during geopolitical events is normal, and it is also historically temporary. Markets reprice risk quickly, but they also adapt quickly.

Your portfolio was not built for today’s headlines. It was built around:

• Your long-term objectives

• Your time horizon

• Your risk tolerance

• Multiple economic scenarios — including geopolitical stress

History consistently shows that reacting to short-term uncertainty can undermine long-term progress. Discipline during moments like this is not passive, it’s strategic.

Our Perspective

We are monitoring developments closely. If conditions materially change in a way that impacts your strategy, we will act thoughtfully and proactively.

For now, the most prudent course remains the same: stay disciplined, stay diversified, and stay focused on what you can control.

If you’d like to talk through your portfolio or simply gain clarity amid the noise, we’re here. That’s what our planning relationships are built for.

Sources:

1. U.S. Energy Information Administration, "Amid Regional Conflict, the Strait of Hormuz Remains Critical Oil Chokepoint," https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504

2. OPEC+ Production Adjustment Announcement, March 1, 2026, https://www.opec.org/press-releases.html

3. International Energy Agency, Oil Market Report, February 2026, https://www.iea.org/reports/oil-market-report-february-2026

4. The National, "OPEC+ Agrees 206,000 BPD Increase as Iran Conflict Tests Supply Routes," March 1, 2026, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/03/01/opec-agrees-206000-bpd-increase-as-iran-conflict-tests-supply-routes/

*These views are those of the author, not of the broker-dealer or its affiliates. This material contains an assessment of the market and economic environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources.

*The fast price swings in commodities will result in significant volatility in an investor’s holdings. Commodities include increased risks, such as political, economic, and currency instability, and may not be suitable for all investors.

*No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.